Let me be honest with you this deal does not sound as good as it seems.
On May 1 2026 China started a policy where it does not charge tariffs on goods from most African countries. This new policy covers 53 out of 54 countries in Africa. The only country that is not part of this policy is Eswatini. China did this because Eswatini has ties with Taiwan.
There have been nice things said about this new policy. People have called it a ” deal” and “historic”.. Yes it is a big deal that China is not charging tariffs on goods from 53 countries.. I have a question that keeps bothering me. What is Africa going to send to China?
The Truth About What Africa Exports
I am not being negative about this policy because of politics. I am being negative because of the facts. Africa has a lot of people and a lot of resources.. Even with all these resources Africa is not making many things that other countries want to buy.
In fact Africa only makes 2 percent of the worlds manufactured goods.. When it comes to exporting these goods Africa only exports about 1.3 percent of the worlds total. These numbers are not just a little off they show a problem.
When China buys things from Africa it mostly buys minerals like oil and copper. Africa also sells China some materials that have been processed a little bit.. Africa does not sell China many finished goods that are worth a lot of money.
This new policy does not change the fact that Africa is mostly selling China materials and buying back finished goods. Africa has been doing this for a time.
It is also important to note that many of the materials that Africa sells to China were already not charged tariffs. So this new policy does not really help Africa that much.
The things that were charged tariffs were mostly goods like cocoa and coffee. Removing these tariffs does help some farmers in Africa.. These goods are still not worth as much as finished goods.
They do not create jobs or help Africa build factories.. They do not help Africa become a country that makes many things.
The Trade Deficit Nobody Wants to Talk About
There is another number that people should know about.
In 2025 China and Africa traded a total of $348 billion worth of goods. This sounds like a lot of money.. When you look at how it breaks down you see that China sold $225 billion worth of goods to Africa. Africa only sold $123 billion worth of goods to China.
This means that Africa is buying more from China than it is selling.. This gap between the two numbers is getting bigger.
Removing tariffs on some goods will not change this. It might help a bit but it will not fix the problem.
One expert said that this new policy does not cost China much. It only helps the areas where China needs Africas help.
China is trying to show that it is not like the United States, which has been putting up trade barriers.. Whether this helps Africa is not clear.
Why Africa Cannot Simply Start Exporting Manufactured Goods
We need to be honest about why Africa’s not making many things.
It is not just because of policies. It is because of years of problems that have built up.
Until these problems are fixed no trade agreement will help Africa become a country that makes things.
One of the problems is electricity. In Nigeria, which’s Africas most populous country many factories have to use diesel generators because the power grid is not reliable.
This means that factories cannot run properly.. It means that foreign investors do not want to invest in Africa.
There is also a problem with infrastructure. Moving materials to a port is one thing.. Moving finished goods is much harder.
It requires roads, reliable customs processing and cold chains for perishable goods.
The World Bank has said that Africas infrastructure problems reduce growth by about two percentage points every year.
This is like a tax on productivity.. It is paid by every manufacturer in Africa.
Another problem is that Africa did not follow the path of industrialization.
Most countries start by building factories and making things. Then they move to services.
Africa jumped straight from farming to services.. It did not build many factories.
As of 2023 one African country had a manufacturing sector that was big enough to help the country grow.
That country is Eswatini, which is the one country that is not part of Chinas new policy.
What China Is Actually Getting Out of This
I want to be clear about what China’s getting from this new policy.
China is not doing this out of kindness. It is doing it because it is good for Chinas strategy.
China is losing buyers in markets.. Africa has a young and growing population that wants to buy Chinese goods.
This new policy makes it easier for Chinese goods to enter markets.
At the time it helps Africa become more integrated into Chinas economic system.
This is not necessarily a thing.. It is not equal either.
China has invested a lot in infrastructure over the past 20 years.
Chinese investment in African processing capacity has reached over $40 billion.
Investment and partnership are not the same as equality.
What Would Actually Help
Since I am saying that this new policy is not enough I should say what would actually help.
Africa does not need tariffs as much as it needs the ability to make things worth exporting.
It needs electricity, good transport infrastructure and processing facilities that can turn raw materials into finished goods.
The African Continental Free Trade Area is a promising solution than any bilateral deal with a single country.
Building -African value chains is the only way for Africa to get out of the trap of only selling raw materials.
A unified African market of 1.4 billion people trading in manufactured goods with each other is a better proposition than 54 separate economies selling raw materials to China.
A Final Word, on the Country Left Out
One thing that has not been talked about enough is the irony of Eswatini being left out of this policy.
Eswatini is not sitting outside this deal because Eswatini produces things that’re worth trading. Eswatini is the African country that has crossed the 20 percent manufacturing threshold. Eswatini has textile and sugar processing industries. The trade between Eswatini and the United States under the African Growth and Opportunity Act has given Eswatini the kind of market access that Eswatini needs, which’s toward finished goods, not raw materials and this is what the rest of the continent needs more of.
Beijing excluded Eswatini because Eswatini recognised Taiwan and Beijing wanted to punish Eswatini for that.. By doing so Beijing excluded the one African nation whose export profile might have made the most use of duty-free access to the Chinese market.
This situation is very interesting. A deal that claims to help African development has excluded the country that is closest to actually being able to take advantage of it.
The Bottom Line
China dropping tariffs on 53 nations is something good. For cocoa farmers in Ghana growers in Kenya and citrus producers in the Western Cape it is a good thing for their market. These benefits are real. Should not be ignored.
A trade deal that mostly opens a door for goods that Africa is already exporting in raw form and does not do anything to address the reasons why Africa cannot export more finished products is not as great as people are saying. It is a gesture and it was done at the right time but it is also meant to help Beijings interests as much as Africas.
Africa has a lot of resources. Africa has a lot of people. Africa has a lot of land. What Africa needs is the electricity to run its factories the roads to move its products and the will to build the capacity that turns raw wealth into finished value.
Until that happens zero tariffs are like a door, to a room that Africa has not yet been able to prepare.