Challenges Ahead for Cameroon Under Paul Biya's Continued Leadership

The ongoing conflict in the North West and South West regions of Cameroon, often referred to as the Anglophone Crisis, is deeply rooted in political, cultural, and historical grievances.

If President Paul Biya, under the Cameroon People's Democratic Movement (CPDM), secures another 7-year mandate, several factors suggest that the conflict may continue:

Anglophone separatists in the North West and South West regions have long accused the central government, dominated by the French-speaking majority, of marginalization and oppression. President Biya's administration has been criticized for failing to address these grievances effectively. For instance, the government has only recently attempted to implement a 1996 decentralization law, which many see as a symbolic gesture rather than a meaningful solution. This lack of trust and perceived insincerity fuels separatist sentiments. There has been much talk about decentralization but very little is being done to implement it's. 

Under Biya's leadership, the government has largely relied on military force to suppress the separatist movement. Campaigns by the CPDM in these regions have been conducted under heavy security due to the ongoing violence. This militarized approach has escalated tensions and led to widespread human rights abuses, further alienating the Anglophone population. A continuation of this strategy under another Biya mandate is unlikely to resolve the root causes of the conflict.

Years of nepotism and tribalism under Biya's rule have exacerbated regional and ethnic tensions across Cameroon. These systemic issues contribute to the perception among Anglophones that they are excluded from meaningful participation in national governance. Without significant reforms, these grievances are likely to persist, fueling the conflict. 

Paul Biya has been in power for over 42 years, making him one of Africa's longest-serving leaders. His administration has been characterized by resistance to political change and a lack of inclusivity. Calls for federalism or greater autonomy for the Anglophone regions or better still a referendum for the people to decide have been largely ignored, leaving separatists with little hope for a peaceful resolution under his continued leadership.

The separatist movement has grown more entrenched over time, with many Anglophones feeling that peaceful dialogue is no longer an option. The violent campaign by separatists began as a response to perceived discrimination and has only intensified in the face of government repression. Another Biya mandate, without significant policy shifts, is unlikely to change this trajectory.

If Paul Biya wins another 7-year mandate, the conflict in the North West and South West regions of Cameroon is likely to persist due to a combination of mistrust, systemic marginalization, and the government's reliance on military solutions. Without meaningful reforms and genuine efforts to address the grievances of the Anglophone population, the cycle of violence and instability is unlikely to end.