WHY ECOWAS MAY NOT USE MILITARY FORCE IN NIGER

The Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) has threatened to use military force in Niger if the coup leaders do not restore civilian rule by Sunday, August 7, 2023. However, there are a number of reasons why ECOWAS may not be able to carry out its threat.

• Lack of international support: A military intervention in Niger would be a major undertaking, and it is not clear that ECOWAS would have the support of the international community. The United States and France, which are both major powers in West Africa, have expressed concerns about the coup in Niger, but they have not yet committed to supporting a military intervention and so it will be difficult for ECOWAS to step in with any military inter if its not sure if the kind of support its going to get from the West.
• Cost: A military intervention would be expensive, and it is not clear that ECOWAS has the resources to carry it out. The bloc is already struggling to deal with the security challenges posed by terrorism and insurgency in the region. In addition, most of the member countries in ECOWAS are already facing inflation in their countries and their citizens are barely surviving. Nigeria being the big brother in the ECOWAS bloc and has been described by many as the poverty capital of the world with more than half of its population living below the poverty line, it's not certain what role she will be able to play at this time.
• Risk of civilian casualties: A military intervention would likely result in civilian casualties, which could further destabilize the country. The coup leaders have already shown that they are willing to use violence to maintain their grip on power, and they could retaliate against civilians if ECOWAS intervenes.
• International law: A military intervention in Niger could violate international law. The United Nations Charter prohibits the use of force against the territorial integrity or political independence of another state. ECOWAS would need to justify a military intervention in Niger under the UN Charter's provisions for self-defense or collective security.

In light of these factors, it is possible that ECOWAS will not be able to carry out its threat to use military force in Niger. The bloc may be forced to rely on other means, such as sanctions or diplomatic pressure, to try to restore civilian rule.

In addition to the reasons mentioned above, there are a number of other factors that could complicate a military intervention in Niger. These include:

• The difficult terrain: Niger is a landlocked country with a largely desert landscape. This would make it difficult for ECOWAS forces to deploy and operate in the country.
• The lack of reliable intelligence: ECOWAS forces would need reliable intelligence on the coup leaders and their supporters in order to carry out a successful military intervention. However, it is unclear how much intelligence ECOWAS has on the situation in Niger.
• The risk of regional instability: A military intervention in Niger could have destabilizing effects in the wider region. Neighboring countries, such as Mali and Burkina Faso, are also facing security challenges, and a coup in Niger could embolden coup leaders in those countries. The military leaders in Mali and Burkina Faso have already earn ECOWAS not to attack Niger else they will have to joint Niger to fight ECOWAS.

For all of these reasons, it is possible that ECOWAS will not be able to carry out its threat to use military force in Niger. The bloc may be forced to rely on other means, such as sanctions or diplomatic pressure, to try to restore civilian rule.